Right under the auroral belt
Reine sits at almost 68° north, beneath the band where the northern lights appear most often. You don't need a big storm on the sun for the light to stand over you here — what has to come together is three things: a dark enough sky, a clear enough sky, and a little activity. This page puts the three together for the nights ahead.
It still needs a clear sky
Space weather is only half the story, and in Lofoten the weather is the hard half. A storm overhead does nothing if cloud or one of the squalls that roll in off the sea is in the way, so this page weighs the cloud forecast over the dark hours alongside the activity. A promising night can be hidden by cloud, and a quiet one can still surprise you.
What the numbers mean
The activity figure is NOAA's Kp model — an estimate of how strong the aurora is, not a promise. Treat a good night as a chance worth stepping outside to check, not a guarantee, and a calm night as still worth a look this far north.